Flow SPX Daily: November 19 Analysis & November 20 Plan
Institutions Continued Accumulating Ahead of Thursday’s Data
Market Summary
SPX Close: 6,642.15 | Change: +24.82 (+0.37%)
Opening: 6625.84
Range: Low 6603.50, High 6689.75
Volume Profile: Morning rally to 6689, failed, consolidation 6630-6640
VIX: 23.65 (-1.03, -4.2%) - Elevated But Compressing
VIX Intraday: High 24.79, Low 21.93
VIX Action: Spiked to 24.79 midday, crashed to 21.93 early, elevated but stable
VIX Levels:
Normal: 14-16
Elevated: 18-20
We’re at 23.65 (fear range compressing)
Fear: 20-25
Panic: 25+
The Prediction That Partially Hit
What I Called Tuesday Night:
Base Case (50%): Consolidation 6575-6650 ahead of Thursday jobs data. The 6574 low becomes critical support.
The Evidence I Cited:
$2.35B deep ITM positioning (highest since cycle began)
Tuesday’s $1.04B net call buying despite 55-point drop
December strengthened to $840M net calls
3:00 PM $1.17B call surge showed conviction
VIX at 24.68, elevated but contained
Key Quote: “Wednesday likely consolidates 6575-6650, setting up for Thursday’s data reaction. The 6575 low becomes critical support.”
What Actually Happened Wednesday:
Opened 6625 (above my range, gap up)
Rallied to 6689 (tested above 6650 resistance!)
Pulled back to 6603 (stayed above 6574 support)
Closed 6642 (+25 points, mid-range)
VIX compressed to 23.65 (down from 24.68)
Net flow: $930M CALL bias (institutions still buying)
Result: Partially correct. Did consolidate, but in 6620-6630 range (higher than forecast 6575-6650). The 6575 support was not tested. The key insight validated: institutions continued accumulating ahead of Thursday’s data.
The Setup Improved
Tuesday Close:
SPX at 6617, VIX 24.68 (elevated fear)
$2.35B deep ITM positioning
December $840M net calls
Technical damage from breaking 6650
Wednesday Reality:
Gapped up to 6625, tested 6689 (back above 6650!)
VIX compressed to 23.65 (fear subsiding)
Deep ITM REPOSITIONED massively
December strengthened to $3.21B call premium
The consolidation call was directionally correct, just higher than expected. More importantly, the flow showed a MAJOR shift: $732M liquidation at 5000 strike, $810M accumulation at 6000 strike. Institutions moved their gamma ramp 1000 points higher.
