Flow SPX Daily: May 5 Analysis & May 6 Plan
New All-Time High at 7273. VIX Back Below 18. The Deepest Remaining Positions Sold. The Buyer Opened New Dec 2027 Positions Immediately After.
Market Summary: Tuesday May 5
SPX Close: $7,259.21 | Change: +$58.45 (+0.81%)**
SPX Open: $7,239.53 | Intraday High: $7,273.26 (new all-time high) | Intraday Low: $7,233.62
Volume Profile: Opened 7,239, brief dip to 7,233, then rallied continuously to 7,273 ATH in the final hour, pulled back to close 7,259
VIX Close: 17.37 | VIX Range: 17.20 low – 18.02 premarket high
VIX Premarket: 17.95 open, 18.02 high, moved lower into the open
VIX Regular Session: Opened 17.40, high of 17.93 in the first hour, low of 17.20 in the final hour, closed 17.37
VIX Levels:
Normal: 14–16
Elevated: 18–20 (closed 17.37, back below 18 after Monday’s 18.28, VIX compressed 0.91 points in a single session)
Fear: 20–25
Panic: 25+
Monday’s 1.30-point VIX expansion reversed 70% in a single session. Monday 18.28, Tuesday 17.37, a -0.91 compression back toward the sub-17 territory seen Thursday and Friday of last week. The premarket high of 18.02, barely touching 18, set the ceiling, and the regular session spent the entire day compressing from 17.93 to 17.20. The intraday low of 17.20 is the lowest since Friday’s 16.98 close. The correction cycle’s sub-17 regime appears to be reasserting itself.
Price Action Narrative
The session’s structure is clean: brief opening dip to 7,233, then one direction for the rest of the day. The low was set within the first five minutes of trading, and the close at 7,259 recovered most of the distance between the open and the ATH. The final-hour ATH of 7273 represents the session’s highest point. The close at 7,259 is 14 points below it, a modest pullback from the ATH print that still constitutes a significant new ATH close.
The new ATH close of 7,259.21 is 29 points above Friday’s prior ATH close of 7,230.11. The intraday ATH of 7,273.26 exceeds Friday’s intraday high of 7,272.52 by 0.74 points. SPX is now 257 points above the prior January ATH of 7,002.
Forecast Review: What We Called Monday
Monday’s forecast: 40% ISM services beat, recovery above $7,200 toward $7,250. 40% mixed data, consolidation 7,150–7,250. 20% ISM miss or jobs fear, selloff to $7,100–7,150.
Economic data actuals:
US trade balance March: -$60.3B actual vs -$60.9B forecast vs -$57.8B prior: smaller deficit than forecast, slight beat
S&P final US services PMI April: 51.0% actual vs 51.3% prior: slight downward revision from flash reading
Job openings March: 6.87M actual vs 6.8M forecast vs 6.92M prior: slight beat on forecast
New home sales February delayed: 635,000 actual vs 631,000 forecast vs 583,000 prior: beat
New home sales March: 682,000 actual vs 660,000 forecast vs 635,000 prior: significant beat
ISM services April: 53.6% actual vs 54.3% forecast vs 54.0% prior: miss on forecast, but still comfortably in expansion
What actually happened:
SPX opened at 7,239.53, moved lower briefly to the low of 7,233.62, then bounced and rallied the rest of the day to a new all-time high of 7,273.26 in the final hour, before pulling back to close at 7,259.21. VIX opened premarket at 17.95, hit a high of 18.02, then moved lower to open regular trading at 17.40, continuing lower to a low of 17.20 in the final hour, closing at 17.37.
Scorecard:
40% scenario: ISM services missed the 54.3% forecast but the market rallied through the 7,250 target into new ATH territory anyway. The housing data (new home sales 682,000 vs 660,000 forecast) and the overall data mix was constructive enough.
40% scenario: No consolidation. New ATH.
20% scenario: No selloff.
The 40% scenario was right on the direction if not the catalyst. ISM services at 53.6% was a miss but not a breakdown. The reading is still firmly in expansion territory. The combination of new home sales beat, trade balance better than feared, and job openings holding above 6.8M was sufficient to drive the session to new ATH territory.
